No, You Should Not Have or Participate in a Coronavirus Party. Here's What to Know About Herd Immunity
Jasmine Aguilera April 24, 2020 2:29 PM EDT
https://time.com/5825386/herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19/?amp=true
"Dowdy says researchers think only about 1 to 2% of the U.S. population is currently immune to the virus. “It may be higher in places like New York City, but to get to 1 to 2% [immunity], we’ve already had over 40,000 deaths,” he says. “To get to 70% of the population being immune through natural protection, you’re talking hundreds of thousands of deaths, so not a good idea.”
Don't try to get covid-19. You could be surprised by the damage it does to you and to others.
"“We’re talking here about a disease that’s probably 100 times more deadly, at least, than chickenpox. I also feel like people are confusing the idea of individual immunity and herd immunity,” Dowdy adds. “If people are thinking of intentionally exposing themselves, they shouldn’t be thinking in terms of herd immunity, they should be thinking in terms of the risk-benefit to themselves…that’s a big risk to take and not one that I think is a wise choice.”
There are other risk factors to consider with COVID-19. Infectious disease experts don’t yet know how long people can be protected by antibodies after recovering from the disease. There’s also the potential to spread the virus to those who might not be able to recover from it."
Covid-19 is making social relations awkward. It's hard.
Herd immunity, it's about jobs more than medical solutions in my opinion.
Herd immunity, it's ageism in disguise.
Herd immunity, it's Death Panels by economics.
‘Herd immunity’ without a vaccine could mean 840,000 coronavirus deaths in California
Gov. Newsom says things will be normal when we have “herd immunity.” Here’s why that could be scary.
If the guess work behind herd immunity fails, California can experience 840,000 deaths, PERIOD. That is scary.
Is Fox News ready to shoulder responsibility for great numbers od deaths as they give the two doctors a platform to undermine a cautious effort for Public Safety?
Admittedly the balance between safety and danger vs opening businesses at some risk is hard! Death is final, however.
California urgent care doctor questions stay-at-home orders: 'You can get to herd immunity without a vaccine'
By Charles Creitz | Fox News April 28, 2020Last Update 19 hrs ago
https://www.foxnews.com/media/california-doctor-questions-stay-at-home-orders.amp
""When someone dies in this country right now, they're not talking about the high blood pressure, the diabetes, the stroke. They're saying 'Did they die from COVID?'" Erickson says in another video. "We've been to hundreds of autopsies. You don't talk about one thing, you talk about comorbidities. ER doctors now [say] 'It's interesting when I'm writing about my death report, I'm being pressured to add COVID. Why is that?
"Something else is going on here. This is not about science and it's not even about COVID. When [authorities] use the word 'safe' -- if you listen to the word 'safe', that's about controlling you.""
I am confident the "Doctor" is not expressing all the facts about the autopsies. This reads like a Militia "Freedom Fighter" mantra.
"I'm being pressured to add COVID." I do not believe this.
What I believe is that where there is a chance to err on the RIGHT side of a diagnosis vs missing the threat (wrong side), an error which can unleash death on our society in massive numbers, already >70,000 in 8 months since September 2019, that is the RIGHT thing to do.
AUTOPSIES HAVE SHOWN COVID-19 STARTED ITS MURDEROUS ONSLAUGHT IN SEPTEMBER 2019!
Lacking the discipline to hold the line in this battle, American hospitals can be overwhelmed and vulnerable people, elders mainly (ageism?), will die.
"Erickson told Ingraham Monday night he has looked to Sweden, where the restrictions imposed to fight the coronavirus have been far less sweeping than those instituted by Sweden's European neighbors.
"They've some basic social distancing and [a] doctor just finished doing a report where he said there's really not a lot of science backing these techniques," he said. "And if you look at their numbers: 200 deaths per million compared to ours, [which is] about the same. Italy's [is] about 400 per million and Spain is about 400 per million, so we are looking at this going, 'OK, they took a completely different approach and their results are basically the same.'"
It is too soon to say Sweden's approach is working! It is too risky to follow Sweden's choice. USA has 1.1M infections and we have used lock-downs by 3 May. How many infections do we want?
""Once [the herd immunity rate] hits 70 or 80 percent, the virus has nowhere else to go and it burns out," Erickson said, later adding, " ... So I think the key is the vaccine helps get you to herd immunity, but also, you can get to herd immunity without a vaccine.""
How many deaths are equal to 70% herd immunity? In California alone it is estimated ~840,000! Is that "good!?"
I am not a doctor, but this statement is LOADED with risk and ignorance.
It is OBVIOUS in SEVERAL ways to an ignorant non-medical person, but I know there is a LOT of uncertainty still about covid-19, too much to go too fast to open businesses.
1. You can, if you are lucky, get herd immunity by wondering around with sick people. You might also get sick, and die too.
2. Wandering around with sick people without a vaccine may be irrelevant because maybe you are the one who will not get sick anyway.
3. The definition of herd immunity is going without a vaccine so it says nothing to say you can get herd immuni8ty without a vaccine.
There are these several elements that reveal the risk and ignorance in this title.
Dr. Daniel Erickson pushes to lift California stay at home orders because lockdowns have minimal benefits
KUSI Newsroom, Posted: April 27, 2020
"SAN DIEGO (KUSI) – Two doctors in the Bakersfield area want the California shelter-in-place order to be lifted.
Dr. Dan Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi own and run an urgent care facility in Kern County.
“Do we need to still shelter in place? Our answer is no. Do we need businesses to be shut down? No. Do we need to test them and get them back to work? Yes we do,” says Dr. Dan Erickson.
The two say they have their own statistics that show COVID-19 is similar to the flu.
The total number of cases among San Diego County residents is now at 3,043, the county reported Sunday. The total number of deaths in the county remained at 111.
The number of people requiring hospitalization is 696, or 22.9% of cases, and the number of cases placed in intensive care is 227, or 7.5% of all cases.
Of 1,297 tests reported to the county Saturday, 8% were positive."
These doctor's suggestion that covid-19 is not much worse than seasonal flu is INSANE! Following their advice will kill more people than should be killed.
To me, these doctors and their followers, and ignorant or uncaring and undisciplined people who agree with them, use herd immunity as an excuse to make money at the expense of human life.
Obviously YouTube agrees their comments are like Trump's blech / Lysol injection idea, so they shut them down. YouTube is showing where to draw the line of "free speech" as it becomes "kill speech."
These two docs are shouting "Fire!" in a packed movie theater / concert.
Freedom of speech can kill. These doctors are example of excessive and unwise freedoms in America.
What does SCIENCE say?
The coronavirus lockdown is miserable. Rushing herd immunity could be worse
By Deborah NetburnStaff Writer May 1, 2020
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-05-01/why-we-cannot-rush-coronavirus-herd-immunity
"You are so done with this coronavirus lockdown.
You’re tired of Zoom cocktail hours, the never-ending pile of dishes, Netflix.
You miss your friends. You want to hug your parents. You want to see people’s faces, no masks please."
A frustrating time that can lead to stupid choices.
"Just how bad would it be to let everyone struggling to pay their bills go back to work? To eat at a restaurant again? To go to the beach on a hot day without being scolded by your governor?"
How bad can it be? VERY bad!
"There is no doubt that there are significant health risks associated with lockdown. People fearful of going to the hospital or the doctor’s office are delaying cancer treatments, toughing out strokes and heart attacks at home and thinking about skipping their dialysis sessions.
Studies show that in times of economic hardship suicide rates go up and domestic violence increases. And prolonged physical isolation is associated with an increase in depression, anxiety, irritability and stress.
But for the time being, public health experts say those costs cannot compare with the massive loss of life that would occur if officials decide to throw up their hands and fast-track herd immunity.
"Rushing herd immunity could be worse"
"There is no doubt that there are significant health risks associated with lockdown. People fearful of going to the hospital or the doctor’s office are delaying cancer treatments, toughing out strokes and heart attacks at home and thinking about skipping their dialysis sessions.
Studies show that in times of economic hardship suicide rates go up and domestic violence increases. And prolonged physical isolation is associated with an increase in depression, anxiety, irritability and stress."
More.
Nearly [More than 60K 3 May!] 60,000 Americans died of coronavirus in the month of April, and that was when physical distancing measures were largely in place across the country.
By comparison, researchers estimate that the Great Recession that began in December 2007 led to 4,740 additional suicides in the U.S. over the ensuing three years.
Even if you include deaths from other causes that might be tied to a bad economy, “I don’t think there is a great data-driven argument that any recession is likely to cause the same amount of death as we are currently seeing from COVID-19,” said Dr. David Eisenman, director of UCLA’s Center for Public Health and Disasters. “That would have to be examined, but that’s my hypothesis.”
And scientists say that if lockdown restrictions were suddenly lifted, the number of deaths from the virus would skyrocket."
SKYROCKET! DEATH WILL WIN!
How disciplined will Americans be even if the businesses open slowly? Time will tell.
Coronavirus: Gov. Newsom says things will be normal when we have “herd immunity.” Here’s why that’s scary.
Lisa M. Krieger
PUBLISHED: April 16, 2020 at 7:00 a.m. | UPDATED: April 17, 2020 at 6:48 p.m.
Categories: Business, California News, Economy, Health, Latest Headlines, Lifestyle, News, Politics, Travel & Play
"What’s herd immunity? It’s when so many people have been infected and develop protective antibodies that a virus runs out of hosts. That’s likely what happened in the 1918-1919 flu pandemic, which killed 20 million to 40 million people and then vanished.
What does “herd immunity” look like in the age of COVID-19? Without a vaccine, about 28 million infected Californians.
Based on current estimates, about 5 percent of infected people — or roughly 1.4 million Californians — would get severely ill. Of these, 840,000 could die, although there’s hope of holding that number down."
That's a lot of dead people - human SACRIFICE! Is the USA ready to make human sacrifice OK? Shall we cut the heart out of the living elderly too, so we can be like the Incas?
"Based on early estimates of this virus’s infectiousness, we likely will need at least 70% of the population to be immune to have herd protection, according to Johns Hopkins School of Public Health epidemiologists Gypsyamber D’Souza and David Dowdy.
Why 70%? The more contagious the virus, the more people need to be vaccinated for herd immunity to work; contagious viruses are more likely to find that unprotected person in the herd. Immunity to measles is reached at 90-95%; for polio, it’s 80-85%."
There are VERY significant UNANSWERED questions in the scenario of reopening the economy to allow people to get sick, and to TRY to achieve herd immunity!
"How much protection do antibodies confer on people who have recovered? The jury is still out on that.
When will new medicines blunt the impact of illness? We don’t know that, either.
Could we reach that magic 70% target by infecting just young people, segregating the sick and elders? Perhaps. Hospitalization rates increase with age, with a rate per 100,000 of 0.3 in persons under age 4, 0.1 in ages 5 to 17 years and 2.5 in ages 18 to 49 years."
It is inevitable that states will reopen their businesses given the desperation of working people that need to pay their bills. When the USA reopens, as each state reopens businesses, can Americans be disciplined enough to go slow, be smart and CARING of the most vulnerable, and get it "right," meaning avoid a huge new outbreak? Time will tell.
